BY BRIAN HEINEMANN
CNHI
CHICAGO — A look at all 11 Big Ten Conference football teams heading into the 2010 season.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Last year: 3-9, 2-6 Big Ten (ninth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 47 returning, 17 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 5/6, defense 7/4, kickers 2/0.
Key returning starters: Jarred Fayson, WR, Sr.; Tavon Wilson, CB, Jr.; Mikel Leshoure, RB, Jr.
Others to watch: Martez Wilson, LB, Jr. (second on team in tackles as sophomore, injured after one game last year); Michael Buchanan, DE-LB, So.; Eddie McGee, WR, Sr. (former QB, runs Wildcat formation)
Reason for optimism: Martez Wilson is back, and he’s 100 percent. The run game was fantastic in 2009, and returns over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. The road schedule is one of the easier ones in the conference and the Illini also avoid Iowa and Wisconsin.
Reason for pessimism: Starting a redshirt freshman quarterback and the porous pass defense. While Zook is optimistic about Nathan Scheelhaase at quarterback, he’s never played a down of college football and has no breaking-in period with Missouri up first. The pass defense ranked No. 100 last year, with only five interceptions and a handful of deflections.
Bottom line: Don’t look for the Illini to get back to their Rose Bowl form of three years ago. While the run game is good, defenses can stack the box against a freshman quarterback, and Illinois isn’t going to beat anybody with the pass. It would take a tremendous upset to start anything but 0-3 in conference play, and the Illini could feasibly enter the second half of the season at 1-5.
Indiana Hoosiers
Last year: 4-8, 1-7 Big Ten (tied for 10th)
Lettermen returning/lost: 43 returning, 24 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 8/3, defense 4/7, kickers 2/0.
Key returning starters: Ben Chappell, QB, Sr.; Tandon Doss, WR, Jr.; Tyler Replogle, LB, Sr.
Others to watch: Damarlo Belcher, WR, Jr.; Terrance Turner, WR, Jr.; Jeff Thomas, LB, Sr. (transfer, 104 tackles last year)
Reason for optimism: The offense and the non-conference schedule. Indiana’s offense should put up big numbers this year, with sophomore running back Darius Willis coming off an impressive year and having eight starters back. The non-conference schedule should provide four wins.
Reason for pessimism: Inability to finish and a rough late schedule. Indiana couldn’t finish last year, and with two-thirds of the defense gone, that may not be able to be turned around. The November schedule is nasty and could leave the Hoosiers with a four-game losing streak to close out the season.
Bottom line: The offense is ridiculously talented, with all of their skill-position players back, but the defense, already ranked in the lower third of the nation last year, is changing schemes and trying to fill all kinds of voids. Indiana has a realistic chance at making a bowl game, but at least one conference upset will be needed and the Hoosiers can’t falter out of conference.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Last year: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten, tied for second place
Lettermen returning/lost: 48 returning, 20 lost.
Starters returning/lost: Offense 6/5, defense 8/3, kickers 2/0.
Key returning starters: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Sr.; Adrian Clayborn, DE, Sr.; Tyler Sash, SS, Jr.
Others to watch: Riley Reiff, LT, So.; Micah Hyde, CB, So.; Jewel Hampton, RB, So. (missed last year because of injury); C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Fr.
Reason for optimism: The defense and home-field advantage. Iowa’s defense, ranked 10th nationally last year, returns eight starters, including the entire dominant front four. The schedule is friendly in that Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State, most of the Big Ten’s top teams, all have to come to Kinnick Stadium.
Reason for pessimism: Offensive inconsistency and the offensive line. Iowa’s offense has the capability to be explosive, but Stanzi needs to cut down on his interceptions (15 last year) and the running game needs to greatly improve. The offensive line will be the deciding factor in how the 2010 season goes, though, and that’s a scary thought, as the likely starting five has minimal experience outside of Julian Vandervelde and Reiff.
Bottom line: This team is entirely capable of going 12-0 and ending up in the BCS National Championship game, assuming teams ahead of it fall off. The defense is one of the NCAA’s best, but the offense has too many questions, with an inexperienced offensive line, a weak rushing attack and a mistake-prone quarterback.
Michigan Wolverines
Last year: 5-7, 1-7 Big Ten (tied for 10th)
Lettermen returning/lost: 53 returning, 24 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 9/2, defense 8/3, kickers 0/2.
Key returning starters: Tate Forcier, QB, So.; Denard Robinson, QB, So.; Roy Roundtree, WR, So.; Troy Woolfolk, CB, Sr.
Others to watch: Vincent Smith, RB, So.; Martavious Odoms, WR, Jr.; Mark Moundros, FB/LB, Sr.
Reason for optimism: Offensive experience, returning defensive coordinator. The offense returns almost everybody, including both quarterbacks and the top three receivers. Having a defensive coordinator return for the first time in five years can only help the defense, which switches to a 3-3-5 scheme.
Reason for pessimism: Quarterback quandary, turnover margin. Neither Forcier nor Robinson stood out last year, and neither stood out this spring. Without consistency at the position, the offense can never fully get going. Last year Michigan finished 115th in turnover margin, a number that won’t improve much if neither quarterback takes care of the ball.
Bottom line: There are some red flags — the tough schedule, the youth, the quarterback position — but Michigan showed flashes of brilliance last year. With so many offensive starters back and a new defensive scheme, their is plenty of cause for optimism in Ann Arbor. This team can finish anywhere from the bottom of the Big Ten to near the top, but in his third year, expect Rich Rodriguez to finally start having some of the success he enjoyed at West Virginia.
Michigan State Spartans
Last year: 6-7, 4-4 Big Ten (tied for sixth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 40 returning, 28 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 7/4, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.
Key returning starters: Kirk Cousins, QB, Jr.; Greg Jones, LB, Sr.; Larry Caper, RB, So.
Others to watch: Jerel Worthy, DT, So. (freshman All-American); Keith Nichol, WR, Jr. (converted QB); Johnny Adams, CB, So.
Reason for optimism: Cousins and a defensive switch. Cousins finished last season as the third-best quarterback in the conference and should only improve with experience after throwing for 19 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. The defense switches to a 3-4 in an effort to help the pass defense, ranked 112th in the nation, by getting more pressure.
Reason for pessimism: The pass defense and the rush offense. It’s hard to imagine the pass defense can rise up from the dregs of the nation, despite the switch to using more 3-4 on defense. The rush offense could also use some help, as last season’s leading rusher, Caper, ran for only 468 yards.
Bottom line: This team has a shot — a very, very outside shot — at contending for the Big Ten title if everything goes right. More likely, however, it will end up right in the middle of the pack and in its fourth straight bowl game, as the offense should become even more explosive but the defense will likely struggle in a transition year.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last year: 6-7, 3-5 Big Ten (eighth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 38 returning, 22 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 9/2, defense 2/9, kickers 1/1.
Key returning starters: Adam Weber, QB, Sr.; Kim Royston, S, Sr.
Others to watch: Duane Bennett, RB, Jr. (3.8 ypc in 2009); Brandon Kirksey, DT, Jr., Mike Rallis, LB, So. (switched from safety in spring)
Reason for optimism: Having the most experienced quarterback in the nation is a bonus for the Gophers. The defense may have lost almost everybody, but what they lost in experience, they make up for in talent and athleticism. The Gophers pulled upsets over Purdue and Michigan State last year, confidence builders for the tough schedule this year.
Reason for pessimism: The schedule and the inexperience. If USC were allowed to be ranked, that would give Minnesota five preseason Top 25 teams on the docket. Having only two defensive starters returning, one of whom, Royston, is coming off a broken leg in the spring, is bad news for one of the nations’ middle-of-the-road defenses.
Bottom line: It’s going to be a down year in Minnesota, as the Gophers will struggle to reach half of the wins they earned last year and sit out bowl season for only the second time in 11 years.
Northwestern Wildcats
Last year: 8-5, 5-3 Big Ten (tied for fourth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 55 returning, 20 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 8/3, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.
Key returning starters: Drake Dunsmore, SB, Jr.; Quentin Davie, LB, Sr.; Corbin Bryant, DT, Sr.
Others to watch: Dan Persa, QB, Jr.; David Arnold, S, Jr. (switched from linebacker to safety before the Outback Bowl last year); Arby Fields, RB, So.
Reason for optimism: The schedule and the pass offense. The Wildcats have a very realistic shot at starting 6-0, and if they can take down Michigan State at home, could be 8-0 heading into November. And they avoid Ohio State. The offense, despite having a new quarterback, ranked first in passing and fourth overall in the Big Ten last year and should put up big numbers again. New QB Persa gained valuable big-game experience against Iowa and Penn State last year.
Reason for pessimism: The late schedule and the rush offense. November is going to be a hard month for the Wildcats to find a win in, and unless they do win at least seven of their first eight, they could finish lower than anticipated in the Big Ten. The rush offense must improve after finishing 95th in the nation last year, but Fields, the projected starter, ran for only 302 yards in 13 games last year.
Bottom line: Northwestern should easily make it to its third bowl in a row, a first for the school. A fourth-place finish in the Big Ten, matching last year, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but the Wildcats will need some big upsets, akin to last year’s wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin in November. Expect them to finish in the bottom half of the conference, barely.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last year: 11-2, 7-1 Big Ten, first place
Lettermen returning/lost: 48 returning, 21 lost.
Starters returning/lost: Offense 9/2, defense 6/5, kickers 0/2.
Key returning starters: Terrelle Pryor, QB, Jr.; Cameron Heyward, DE, Sr.; DeVier Posey, WR, Jr.; Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Sr.
Others to watch: Ross Homan, LB, Sr.; John Simon, DT, So.; Brandon Saine, TB, Sr.; Brian Rolle, LB, Sr.
Reason for optimism: Talent across the board, offensive experience. The Buckeyes are loaded almost everywhere, and with Pryor’s development last year, culminating in a huge performance in the Rose Bowl, the offense should greatly improve from last season, a scary thought for opponents. The defense was one of the nation’s best in almost every category last year, and brings back a slew of big names and top performers.
Reason for pessimism: Pryor’s passing. Really, Pryor is the one major question mark for the Buckeyes. Will he continue to improve, as he did late in 2009, or will he still be the same inconsistent passer? The Buckeyes pass offense ranked near the bottom of the entire nation last year, and even with an overpowering defense, a weak passing game could kill the Buckeyes’ championship hopes.
Bottom line: This team is simply too talented to not win at least 10 games, which should be considered the worst-case scenario. Even a stumble against Miami in Week 2 wouldn’t derail the Buckeyes’ season, although road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa should prove to be difficult. Expect Pryor to improve again this year — although not live up to his full potential or hype — en route to leading the Buckeyes to either the Rose Bowl or BCS National Championship game.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Last year: 11-2, 6-2 Big Ten (tied for second)
Lettermen returning/lost: 36 returning, 21 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 7/4, defense 5/6, kickers 1/1.
Key returning starters: Evan Royster, TB, Sr.; Derek Moye, WR, Jr.; Drew Astorino, HERO (safety/linebacker), Jr.
Others to watch: Graham Zug, WR, Sr.; Kevin Newsome, QB, So.; Matthew McGloin, QB, So.
Reason for optimism: Royster’s return, the defense. Royster’s return provides a huge boost for a team with several glaring holes on offense and gives it a solid back to lean on all year while they figure out the quarterback position. The defense finished ninth in the nation and second in conference last year, and should be nearly as strong in 2010.
Reason for pessimism: Quarterback uncertainty and the road schedule. Penn State doesn’t have a quarterback right now, and neither option, Newsome or McGloin, stands out. Couple the inexperienced quarterbacks with an unheard-of road schedule, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Bottom line: Getting to double-digit wins again is going to be a chore for the Nittany Lions, who will struggle to win at least one of their big three road games. Going undefeated at home isn’t out of the question, but some questions marks, particularly quarterback, make this a down year — albeit a likely top-five finish in conference — for Penn State.
Purdue Boilermakers
Last year: 5-7, 4-4 Big Ten (tied for sixth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 45 returning, 21 lost
Starters returning/lost: offense 6/5, defense 6/5, kickers 1/1.
Key returning starters: Keith Smith, WR, Sr.; Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Sr.; Jason Werner, LB, Sr
Others to watch: Ralph Bolden, RB, So. (tore ACL in spring, may or may not return); Robert Marve, QB, Jr. (transfer from Miami); the secondary (all four are new starters)
Reason for optimism: Marve and last season’s close losses. Marve led Miami to five straight wins two years ago, and brings more talent and athleticism to the position than Hope has ever been around. The Boilermakers lost five tight games last year and had two upsets, which could be a recipe for success this year.
Reason for pessimism: Turnovers, the secondary and Bolden’s injury. Without the 29 turnovers last season, Purdue would have ended up in the postseason instead of watching from home. Having a secondary that’s breaking in four new starters is cause for major concern, even with five of the front seven returning. Bolden’s injury kills the Purdue running game, putting more pressure on Marve.
Bottom line: The addition of Marve should be enough to earn the Boilermakers some wins, and a bowl game is likely. The pass defense will take a severe hit with an inexperienced and young secondary, so Purdue will likely need the offense to put up a lot of points, and it has the offensive firepower to do so.
Wisconsin Badgers
Last year: 10-5, 5-3 Big Ten (tied for fourth)
Lettermen returning/lost: 46 returning, 20 lost.
Starters returning/lost: Offense 10/1, defense 6/5, kickers 2/0.
Key returning starters: Scott Tolzien, QB, Sr.; John Clay, TB, Jr.; J.J. Watt, DE, Jr.
Others to watch: Mike Taylor, OLB, So. (led team in tackles before ACL injury last year); Gabe Carimi, LT, Sr.; Devin Smith, CB, Jr.
Reason for optimism: Offensive continuity and balance. The Badgers return all but their tight end and should be a powerhouse offensively with one of the best QBs in the Big Ten, Tolzien, and one of the best RBs in the nation, Clay. Clay had offseason surgery to remove bone spurs and bone fragments from his ankles, meaning he’s liable to be even more explosive.
Reason for pessimism: The defense and the October schedule. Wisconsin’s defense loses three of its front-four players, and the secondary gave up a ton of touchdowns through the air last year. With the defensive experience, the mid-October back-to-back games with Ohio State and Iowa could be a killer.
Bottom line: This is a legitimate Big Ten contender, with one of the best offenses in the country and a schedule that should see it favored in 10 of 12. The Badgers have the ability to knock off Ohio State or Iowa, but the defense must respond for that to happen.
By Brian Heinemann/For the Commercial-News
